Healthy London Partnership > Demand and Capacity modelling

Demand and Capacity modelling

The Transforming Cancer Services Team (TCST) in collaboration with the Elective Care Improvement Support Team (IST) have been supporting with demand and capacity modelling for imaging and endoscopy services across Southwest London since Autumn 2020, and more recently modelling endoscopy services in North Central London.

The work has been commissioned by Integrated Care Systems (ICS) and cancer alliances to provide diagnostic services and systems with a demand and capacity baseline, assist with future planning for community diagnostic hubs and/or mutual aid for instance. The modelling also helps to identify a range of improvement opportunities within single providers and across the systems.

Once the modelling phase is complete, analysis of the data is required to inform comprehensive provider and system reports which are presented back to the networks. The provider outputs are aggregated up into a system view which is helpful from a comparative perspective and to understand the variance across the sector and where the opportunities are.

The demand and capacity outputs include:
Executive Summary
Statistical Process Control charts (SPC) for historical demand along with a summary
Available and required capacity review and summary
Historical growth over time, also split by urgency and modality
Waiting list size, the sustainable waiting list range and backlog clearance recommendations
Efficiency information (removals, cancellations and did not attend (DNA)
Areas for action/recommendations.

The demand and capacity work is and has been successfully delivered using the National Demand and Capacity team (NHSE/I) Core Model and has been delivered entirely virtually which is incredible. We feel delighted to support and deliver such an ambitious scope at this scale with diagnostic colleagues in London.

Case studies

Epsom & St Helier Hospital – Imaging
This case study was undertaken as part of a system wide demand and capacity modelling project for imaging services in South West London Integrated Care System (ICS). The work was undertaken as a larger modelling project involving endoscopy and echocardiography.

The need to undertake demand and capacity planning at Epsom and St. Helier was driven in two ways. Firstly, Epsom’s aim to achieve a clear understanding of their current demand and capacity position, including the measurement of growth for forecasting capacity needed in the future. Secondly, as a larger piece of demand and capacity work being undertaken by all trusts in the South West London ICS for imaging, with an aim to understanding the capacity position at system level and inform the implementation mutual aid of community diagnostics hubs to increase activity in the region.

Read the full case study
Watch the case study video

For more information contact Sarah Cooper, Cancer Waits Improvement Facilitator – sarah.cooper57@nhs.net